Report
Published May 25, 2023
Commercial Commercial InsightsQ1 GDP grew by 1.1% annualized, following a 2.6% gain in Q4 2022. However, recent data's accuracy is affected by weather-induced consumer spending and unusual seasonal adjustments. Notably, Q1 GDP doesn't reflect the impact of tightened lending standards yet. The core of the economy, measured by real final sales to domestic purchasers, rose by a solid 2.9% annualized, driven by strong consumer spending concentrated in early Q1 and aided by significant cost-of-living payments. Inventory reduction subtracted 2.3ppts from Q1 GDP growth, and this trend is expected to persist as businesses draw from existing stockpiles to meet demand. The Oxford Economics US Business Cycle Indicator declined for two consecutive months, indicating weak Q1 performance. The indicator suggests feeble Q2 growth and a possible H2 2023 recession.
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Q4 2023 Experian/Oxford Economics Main Street Report
North American economic strength is riding on the backs of the resilient U.S. Consumer. For the past two years, the fear of an imminent recession rang in the ears of economists and consumers alike, radiating declining confidence in growth and the ability to prolong spending behaviors consumers grew accustomed to during pandemic recovery. Those fears have been pushed aside as consumers beat holiday spending expectations, upending Retailers' anxiety entering the season.
